Expectancy

What is trading expectancy?

Trading expectancy is the average net result per trade in one defined historical sample. You can express it in USD, another account currency, points or R, as long as every result uses the same unit.

Expectancy describes the selected records. It does not predict the next trade or guarantee that the same average will continue.

Two ways to calculate the same average

Net result ÷ total trades = expectancy per trade

You can also calculate it from the same sample:

(win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss) = expectancy

The two formulas agree only when the inputs use the same trades, dates, counting method and cost treatment.

Fictional 20-trade XAUUSD example

Use the same sample as the win-rate and profit-factor definitions:

• 8 wins × $180 average win = $1,440.
• 12 losses × $80 average loss = $960.

$1,440 − $960 = +$480 net result

+$480 ÷ 20 trades = +$24 expectancy per trade

You can check it with the weighted formula:

(0.40 × $180) − (0.60 × $80) = $72 − $48 = +$24

The +$24 is the average of these 20 fictional trades. No single trade has to finish at +$24.

Keep the sample visible

1. Use one clear start and end date.
2. Use the same closed trades for win rate, average win and average loss.
3. Define how breakeven trades, partial exits and multi-leg positions are counted.
4. Use one currency or R method throughout the sample.
5. Record whether spread, commission, swap and other costs are already included.

The average win and average loss page explains the two outcome-size inputs.

Can you calculate expectancy by setup or session?

Yes, if you have enough comparable records. For example, you might review only XAUUSD London-session liquidity-sweep setups or only New York-session breakout setups. Keep the labels and counting method consistent.

A small sample can move sharply after one unusual result. Treat the number as a review of recorded trades, not proof of a permanent edge.

What should you use next?

The trading expectancy calculator lets you enter your own counts and averages. The trading performance metrics guide shows how to read expectancy beside win rate, profit factor, drawdown and trade count.