Win Rate

What is Win Rate?

Win rate is the simplest performance metric: the number of winning trades divided by the total number of trades, expressed as a percentage. If you took 100 trades and 58 were profitable, your win rate is 58%.

While intuitive, win rate alone tells you very little about profitability. A trader with an 80% win rate can still lose money if their average loss is much larger than their average win. Conversely, a trader with a 35% win rate can be highly profitable with a strong risk-reward ratio.

Win Rate Context Matters

• Scalpers: Often have 60-75% win rates with smaller R:R ratios (1:0.5 to 1:1)
• Swing traders: Typically 40-55% win rates with larger R:R (1:2 to 1:4)
• Breakout traders: Can have 30-40% win rates with very high R:R (1:3+)

The Minimum Viable Win Rate

Your minimum profitable win rate depends entirely on your risk-reward ratio. At 1:1 R:R, you need over 50%. At 1:2 R:R, you need over 33%. The formula is: Breakeven Win Rate = 1 / (1 + R:R). Track both metrics together — either one alone is incomplete.